In Italy, the great maneuvers to Mario Draghi. to keep

Mario Draghi, the outgoing prime minister, will answer to parliament on Wednesday with the parties of his majority.

Rome

And now? On Friday, all news outlets saw political scientists and elected officials trying to decipher the strange non-parliamentary political crisis that has been shaking Italy since July 14. After a succession of twists and turns, the uncertainty is total: after he offered his resignation as head of government to the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella, who did not accept it, Mario Draghi is due to make a statement to parliamentarians next Wednesday. With this statement, he mainly wants to explain the reasons for his spectacular gesture, when he received the confidence of the Senate on Thursday 14 July by a very large majority of 172 votes.

After this speech, each party will have to publicly position itself at the end of the government, or its enforcement, to continue its action. But at the request of Mario Draghi, there should be no confidence vote at the end of the debates. During these five days, until Tuesday evening, the components of the majority can weigh up the reasons for staying or leaving and discuss possible strategies among themselves. So Mattarella wanted to force them to think about the consequences of their actions for the country and for their party, so that they take responsibility.

Apart from the personal statements of the elected officials, we do not know at this time the official position of the various parties, who will hold their national councils between next Monday and Tuesday. Excluding Fratelli d’Italia, the only opposition party advocating a speedy return to the polls. And that of the Democratic Party desperately trying to reconnect the wires within the majority, to save the Draghi administration, and beyond preserving its strategy of alliance with the M5S, the left’s only hope in the parliamentary elections next May.

Four scenarios

On the eve of the weekend, four scenarios were considered, with the likelihood of realization being difficult to estimate as the games are still in flux. First scenario, Mario Draghi withdraws his resignation, which is not yet irrevocable. Faced with calls for responsibility from the President of the Republic, who wants to see the end of the parliamentary term in May, but also ahead of calls from the Democrats, Italia Viva, Forza Italia and part of the League of Entrepreneurs from the North, Mario Draghi eventually agrees to stay, after imposing his terms on everyone. He would go back to the front of the stage, without actually leaving it, with the same majority”of national unityor almost.

The presidents of the Council have already agreed to resign twice: Giovanni Spadolini in 1982 and Lamberto Dini in 1997, with the interests of the country ultimately winning. But Mario Draghi, who is said to be bitter, says he is tired of the incessant negotiations with the components of his majority, particularly with the M5S on the far left and with the League on the far right. He believes that the majorityof national unity“, created in February 2021 to face the two emergencies of the moment – health and that of the definition of the recovery plan to get the funds out of Brussels – no longer has the cement that allowed the opposition to He swears that he will not embark on pointless extensions As the parliamentary elections approach each party is tempted to play its part, and to accept it would, in its view, condemn the government to impotence, by submitting to the dictates of one and the other, in order to endanger his personal credibility.

This is why a new Draghi government, a “Draghi biswithout the five-star movement, the second possible scenario would be, many of which are those who want to get rid of the leader of this movement, Giuseppe Conte, to whom they attribute the origin of the crisis. Even without the M5s, Draghi would have a sufficient number of chosen ones on paper to last until next spring. Only the former central banker, who values ​​its consistency, reiterated that there is “no Draghi government without the M5SWill he be convinced otherwise, especially if the many European voices ask him to stay in office? And will the right really give him the chance?

If Mario Draghi confirms his resignation on Wednesday, as he seems to have intended for the time being, a third scenario would remain, which would follow a path that Italy has often experienced: after consultation with the President of the Republic, who is in control. In the event of a crisis, a technical government can be set up to prepare the 2023 budget and continue the recovery plan. The choice of the Economy Minister, Daniele Franco, who manages the recovery plan and public finances, would embody continuity, in the eyes of Europe and the markets. With this solution, parties that don’t want to rush the next election rally could campaign without endangering the government.

But if none of these hypotheses materialize, Sergio Mattarella would have no choice – fourth scenario – but to dissolve the Chambers and call elections in late September or early October, which would be held after a summer and short campaign. So far, no one, except Fratelli d’Italia, wants to rush the election calendar. But the law of the chessboard, which brings together Fratelli d’Italia, the Liga and Forza Italia, which for once has no clear responsibility in this crisis, would have an objective interest in taking advantage of the weakness of the strategy of alliance of the Democratic Party with the M5S, badly affected by the M5S attack on the Draghi government.

“The M5S Misstep”

Knowing that this right-wing and far-right bloc leads the polls, together with 45.8% of voting intentions in the next parliamentary election, according to the latest SWG poll of 12 July, while Fratelli d’Italia jumps at 23.5% of voting intentions . The right is almost guaranteed to win all seats for one member, a third. This is also the scenario considered most likely today. “The M5S’ misstep creates a great opportunity for the right to win the election quickly, if it hasn’t held the reins alone for ten yearssays political scientist Giovanni Orsina de la Luiss. “For the right, it’s a real gift falling from the sky. Even if Matteo Salvini is in great danger of losing his leadership there, it would be madness not to grab it.The most important thing for the right, however, is not to appear as the one who will benefit from the crisis. That explains why nowadays everyone swears hand in heart allegiance to Mario Draghi.

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